Tropical disturbance will help boost rain chances

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By: Brittany Bedi, Charles Roop | WCTV Pinpoint Weather
May 1, 2019

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance near the Bahamas for a low chance of development.

The cluster of showers and thunderstorms were fairly disorganized as of Wednesday afternoon. The NHC has forecasted a near 0% chance of development in the next 48 hours and a 20% chance of formation in the next five days.

The tropical disturbance is expected to move northeast towards the Florida Peninsula, bringing rain to parts of the Florida peninsula. A few bouts of heavy rain are possible.

For local North Florida and South Georgia counties, rain chances will increase Thursday and remain Friday. The disturbance is expected to move northward around the west side of a ridge, hugging Florida's east coast, then move northeasterly during the weekend as an upper-level trough approaches. After the curve northeast is when the NHC has the best odds (20%) for development.

Unrelated to the disturbance, the aforementioned upper-level trough that's forecast to move into the Southeast will also help keep rain chances in the forecast for the weekend. Together with a cold front at the surface, the odds for rain will be closer to 50%.

Hurricane season officially begins June 1. While pre-season storms have happened in the past, it's still a good reminder to prepare for the upcoming season.