The worry meter is low for Tropical Storm Rafael. Here’s what you need to know
Current models indicate the system is not heading toward Florida or Georgia
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - Tropical Storm Rafael formed Monday afternoon in the southern Caribbean.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting this system to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane on Wednesday near the western tip of Cuba.
As always, the WCTV First Alert Weather Team is watching it closely, but the worry meter is low with this system.
Models are in pretty good agreement that this tropical system will move north/northwest and cross into the Gulf of Mexico by midweek.
In the Gulf, conditions are not very favorable for tropical systems because of wind shear, dry air and cooler water temperatures. As a result, we are anticipating some weakening on Thursday and Friday.
At this point, the steering pattern looks to take this system into the central Gulf of Mexico and south of our region, but we are expecting an increase in tropical moisture on Wednesday and Thursday.
After a recent dry spell, much-need rain is looking likely at times on Wednesday and Thursday in the Big Bend and South Georgia. Some heavier rain pockets are possible.
As of 4 p.m. Monday, Rafael has winds of 45 mph and a minimum pressure of 997 mb.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in place for Jamaica, a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands and a Hurricane Watch is in place for portions of Cuba.
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